TBM 437: Tokens, Hours, Points, and Other Curious Proxies
The Beautiful Mess — John Cutler
≈ 12 min · Current
89/100Tokens can make an AI investment look measurable without making its return explainable. John Cutler places them alongside hours, capacity, and story points: convenient input meters that can stand in for value without establishing how value arises. His distinction is between counting a cost and defending the causal theory that makes that cost worthwhile.
For exploratory, interdependent work in product, software, and AI, that distinction changes what an investment case must establish. What demand does the spending serve, what capability does it create, and which bottleneck does it move? A precise meter leaves those assumptions untouched. The consequential uncertainty sits in the connection between the counted input and the outcome—and in what evidence would change the investment.



